{
  "forecast_id": "FC-16-v1",
  "baseline_ref": "BASE-16-A",
  "work_package_ref": "WP-C03-ETA",
  "forecast_start": "2026-09-14",
  "actual_effort_to_date": 18,
  "remaining_work_estimate": {
    "hours": 42,
    "tasks": [
      "A",
      "B",
      "C"
    ]
  },
  "duration_distribution": [
    {
      "task": "A",
      "type": "triangular",
      "min": 2,
      "mode": 3,
      "max": 5
    },
    {
      "task": "B",
      "type": "triangular",
      "min": 3,
      "mode": 4,
      "max": 6
    },
    {
      "task": "C",
      "type": "triangular",
      "min": 1,
      "mode": 2,
      "max": 4
    }
  ],
  "distribution_basis": "planning-notes+comparable-work-v1",
  "dependency_ref": [
    {
      "from": "A",
      "to": "B"
    },
    {
      "from": "B",
      "to": "C"
    }
  ],
  "dependency_integrity": true,
  "discrete_risk_ref": [
    {
      "risk": "external_review_delay",
      "probability": 0.25,
      "impact": {
        "type": "triangular",
        "min": 2,
        "mode": 4,
        "max": 6
      }
    }
  ],
  "simulation_model_ref": "MC-TRI-v1-seed1601",
  "simulation_runs": 12000,
  "deterministic_date_only": false,
  "sensitivity_candidates": [],
  "forecast_revision": 1,
  "evidence_change_requires_revision": false,
  "reforecast_performed": true,
  "review_owner": "delivery-reviewer",
  "provenance": {
    "source_snapshot": "SCHED-SYNTH-16-A",
    "model_version": "MC-TRI-v1",
    "created_by": "offline-lab"
  },
  "baseline_oracle_reuse": false,
  "recomputed_from_changed_evidence": true
}